Texas This I Know...

Texas This I Know...
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Monday, September 19, 2005

Newspaper Stories Citing Hidden Poll, Facts Sifted Out

Posted below are excerpts from some of the stories published recently who cite the Scripps Howard Texas Poll. As I noted here there is no way to check the facts or interpretation of the poll since it is hidden behind a subscription wall and has not been published at large. At the bottom of this post I have listed the facts of the poll, as the newspapers have interpreted it

Fort Worth Star Telegram September 19,2005
Unease rising on Iraq, terror
AUSTIN - Support for the war in Iraq is slipping in President Bush's home state, with only 28 percent of Texans saying the conflict is going well, according to poll results released Sunday.

The Scripps Howard Texas Poll, which surveyed 1,000 randomly selected residents from Aug. 22 through Sept. 3, also shows that Texans are increasingly uneasy over the wider war on terrorism, with three out of four respondents saying another attack on the United Stated is at least somewhat likely during the next year.

"There is a lot of concern about how the war is going," said poll director Ty Meighan. "You can see it in our poll, just as you can see it in the polls that are coming out nationally."


Fort Worth Star Telegram Sep. 18, 2005
Texans growing uneasy over Iraq
AUSTIN _ Support for the war in Iraq is slipping in President Bush's home state, with only 28 percent of Texans saying the conflict is going well, poll results released Sunday show.

The Scripps Howard Texas Poll, which surveyed 1,000 randomly selected residents from Aug. 22 through Sept. 3, also shows that Texans are increasingly uneasy over the wider war on terrorism, with three out of four respondents saying another attack on the United Stated is at least somewhat likely during the next year.

"There is a lot of concern about how the war is going," said poll director Ty Meighan. "You can see it in our poll, just as you can see it in the polls that are coming out nationally."


Fort Worth Star Telegram, Sep. 12, 2005
Most in favor of 'Robin Hood'

By John Moritz, Star-Telegram Austin Bureau

AUSTIN - The state's often-maligned school finance system, which has been nicknamed the Robin Hood plan, enjoys more support among Texans than many of the political leaders who for years have vowed to end it, a new poll shows.

The Scripps Howard Texas Poll of 1,000 residents found that nearly six in 10 support the funding plan, which requires the state's wealthiest school districts to share the property tax revenues with poorer ones to ensure equitable funding.

By contrast, Gov. Rick Perry, who has called three unsuccessful special legislative sessions urging lawmakers to scrap the plan, enjoys the support of only about four in 10 Texans, the poll shows....



Fort Worth Star Telegram, Sep. 11, 2005
Texans back current school finance plan, poll shows

By John Moritz, Star-Telegram Austin Bureau

AUSTIN -- The state's often-maligned school-finance system, which has been nicknamed the Robin Hood plan, enjoys more support among Texans than many of the political leaders who for years have vowed to end it, a new poll shows.

The Scripps Howard Texas Poll of 1,000 residents found that nearly six in 10 support the funding plan, which requires the state's wealthiest school districts to share the property tax revenues with poorer ones to ensure equitable funding.

By contrast, Gov. Rick Perry, who has called three unsuccessful special legislative sessions urging lawmakers to scrap the plan, enjoys the support of only about four in 10 Texans, the poll shows....



Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Mon, Sep. 19, 2005
Poll shows concern on economy for Texans

By Jim Fuquay. Star-Telegram Staff Writer

Texans have growing concerns about the national economy and their own finances, with 60 percent saying the economy is doing fair or poorly and 40 percent saying they are worse off than a year ago, according to a new Scripps Howard Texas Poll.

Worries about rising energy prices colored results of the poll, which was conducted between Aug. 22 and Sept. 3, said Ty Meighan, the poll's director. The poll surveyed 1,000 adults by phone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points....



Corpus Christi Caller-Times, September 18, 2005
Poll shows Texans not optimistic about Iraq

Many say they expect terror attack in the next year

By TIM EATON Scripps Howard Austin Bureau

AUSTIN - Nearly 80 percent of Texans believe a terrorist attack in the United States is likely in the next year - a 15-point increase from February, according to the Scripps Howard Texas Poll.

Seventy-eight percent say an attack is very or somewhat likely, compared with just 19 percent who say an attack is not very or not at all likely.

"This is absolutely normal and traditional. The better a government is at preventing terrorism, the less credit they get for their success," said David McIntyre, director of the Integrative Center for Homeland Security at Texas A&M University. "The better you are at counter-terrorism, the less people think it is required. It's just a terrible dilemma."

Sixty percent of Texans rate the United States' war on terrorism as going poor or fair - the highest level of dissatisfaction since the question was first asked last year....



Houston Chronicle, Sept. 8, 2005,
Texans shift cash to cover fuel prices
Many report eating out, driving less, but few plan to trade in SUVs
By DAVID IVANOVICH
Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - A growing number of Texas motorists say higher gasoline prices are forcing them to drive less, eat out less often and trim their spending at the grocery store.

But the latest Scripps Howard Texas Poll found drivers are no more likely to consider buying more fuel-efficient vehicles than when pump prices were lower.

"Some people simply ... don't care," said Ty Meighan, director of the poll. "They have their truck or their SUV or whatever it is, and that's the vehicle they're going to have."

Surveying 1,000 Texans by telephone between Aug. 22 and Sept. 3, the Scripps Research Center found 63 percent of respondents said gas prices were causing them a financial hardship. That was up from 60 percent last May and 42 percent in October 2004



Houston Chronicle, Sept. 10, 2005, 10:21PM
More Texans say they favor sharing the wealth
EDUCATION FUNDING
An income tax, other proposals draw responses along party lines
By CLAY ROBISON
Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle Austin Bureau

AUSTIN - Although a growing number of Texans believe their local property taxes are too high, most support the controversial law, dubbed "Robin Hood," that requires property wealthy school districts to share tax revenue with poorer schools.

But there are sharp differences between Republicans and Democrats over the share-the-wealth law, the Scripps Howard Texas Poll shows, underscoring one reason for the Legislature's prolonged inability to overhaul the school finance system and cut local school taxes.
...
According to the Texas Poll, 65 percent of Texans believe their property taxes are too high, compared with 60 percent in May and 54 percent in February.

'Makes a lot of sense'
But despite the Republican attacks against Robin Hood, 57 percent of the survey's respondents agree that rich districts should share their money with poorer schools. Some 38 percent disagree, and 5 percent don't know, reflecting similar polls earlier this year.
...
Only 44 percent of Republicans favor the law, while 49 percent oppose it, and 7 percent don't know, according to the survey. Democrats, however, approve of Robin Hood by a 72 percent to 23 percent margin, with 5 percent undecided. Independents support the law, 59 percent to 36 percent, also with 5 percent unsure.

...

Even on income tax
Although leaders have vowed to find a tax trade-off that is "revenue neutral," 61 percent of the Texas Poll respondents believe their overall taxes will increase if the Legislature ever enacts a new school finance plan.

Some 25 percent of respondents blamed the school finance impasse on lawmakers, 24 percent blamed it on lobbyists and special interest groups and 14 percent blamed the governor.

Only 3 percent specifically blamed House Speaker Tom Craddick and 1 percent blamed Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. But 17 percent said "all of the above."

Texans, the poll indicates, are about evenly divided on whether the Legislature should enact a state income tax to reduce property taxes and increase education funding. Some 45 percent support an income tax, 47 percent don't and 8 percent are unsure.

But there were significant partisan differences over an income tax. Only 35 percent of Republicans like the idea, and 57 percent oppose it. Democrats support it by 60 percent to 31 percent, and independents are evenly divided at 48 percent.

The telephone poll of 1,000 Texans was conducted Aug. 22-Sept. 3 by the Scripps Research Center. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.


Let's try to devine the facts through the published stories. Shall we?

What can be ascertained from the stories:
The poll was conducted among randomly chosen telephone exchanges over the period of August 22 thru September 3.
The number of respondents was 1000
28 percent of Texans say the War is going well.
Three quarters of respondents expect a terror attack within the year.
Nearly six in ten support Robin Hood.
Governor Perry is backed by four in ten respondents.
40 Percent think they are worse off than a year ago.
60 Percent think the economy is doing fair to poor.
79 percent expect a terror attack within a year.
19 percent do not expect an attack at all.
60 percent think the War on Terror is going poor to fair.
63 percent think gas prices are causing them financial hardship.
65 percent think their property taxes are too high.
57 percent think that rich school districts should share the wealth.
38 percent think that rich school districts should NOT share the wealth.
44 percent of Republicans favor Robin Hood.
49 percent oppose Robin Hood.
72 percent of Democrats favor Robin Hood.
23 percent of Democrats oppose Robin Hood.
59 percent of Independents support Robin Hood.
36 percent of Independents oppose Robin Hood.
25 percent of respondents blamed the school finance impasse on lawmakers.
24 percent blamed it on lobbyists/interest groups.
14 percent blamed Governor Perry.
17 percent said "all of the above"
3 percent specifically blamed House Speaker Tom Craddick.
1 percent blamed Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.
45 percent support a state income tax.
47 percent do not want an income tax.
35 percent of Republicans want an income tax
57 percent of Republicans do not want an income tax
Democrats support an income tax by 60 percent to 31 percent.
Independents are evenly divided on an income tax at 48 percent.


A telephone conversation with Poll Director, Ty Meighan, confirmed that the poll is indeed behind a subscription wall and will not be released. Also elicited: the fact that the phrases "Robin Hood" and "share the wealth" do not appear anywhere in the poll, 942 of the 1000 respondents were registered voters, no questions were asked to determine the likelyhood of voting by the respondents.


A fact worthy of a separate post has emerged from this exercise: it appears that the Fort Worth Star Telegram uses the same story more than once. They just change the headline and publish it again.

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